The Steelers' New Era Begins in Latrobe

For the first time since 2007, the Pittsburgh Steelers will bus up Route 30 to Saint Vincent College without Mike Tomlin. That sentence still lands strange. Nineteen seasons, zero losing records, one Lombardi, and a playoff drought that grew from an irritation into an identity — and then, one day after a 30-6 humiliation at the hands of Houston in the Wild Card round, it was over. Tomlin stepped down. He's on NBC now.

Eleven days later, the Steelers hired Mike McCarthy.

That's where this season starts: not with a quarterback question, not with a draft pick, but with a franchise that has changed head coaches four times since 1969 doing so on its own terms, and doing it in a way nobody expected. Chuck Noll was 37. Bill Cowher was 34. Tomlin was 34. All three were first-timers, all three were defensive minds. McCarthy is 62, has 310 games of NFL head coaching experience, a Super Bowl ring, and grew up in Greenfield cleaning his father's bar before church.

Art Rooney II said the quiet part out loud in January: "I'm not sure why you waste a year of your life not trying to contend." The Steelers are not rebuilding. They are, in the most Pittsburgh way possible, trying to win right now — with a 42-year-old quarterback, a 37-year-old defensive captain, and a coach older than both of the last two guys were when they left.

Players report to Latrobe on Tuesday, July 28. First open practice July 29. Pads come on August 3.

Let's take stock.

Part I: What Actually Changed

The Coach

McCarthy's Steelers do not look like Tomlin's Steelers, and everyone in the building has noticed. T.J. Watt's observation from OTAs is the one that stuck with me — there are no benches on the practice field anymore. "It's just interesting because there's many different ways to do things," Watt said. "We're just doing things much different than what I'm used to over the last nine years, and it's good. Change is good for me."

Cam Heyward is parking next to a different car in the lot after sixteen years. Mark Kaboly, who has covered this team forever, wrote that "pretty much everything" was different — the philosophy, the drills, the meeting times, even the elimination of the Mother's Day practice that Tomlin made a staple.

The substance underneath the vibes: McCarthy has built a fundamentals-first, classroom-heavy program. Extensive warmups. Half-speed installs. Position-specific breakouts. Team-wide individual periods drilling ball security and reaction time. Outside linebackers coach C.J. Ah You straps on tackling pads and gets physical with his guys. By the end of minicamp installs, McCarthy had seen enough that he sent the veterans home and ran the final OTA week with rookies and young players.

More coaches, too. A deliberately mixed staff of veteran and young voices. It's a real philosophical reset, not a cosmetic one.

The staff that matters most:

Campen is the hire Steelers people keep circling back to. Brian Baldinger: "The offensive line coach is infinitely better than what they had. I think the coaching staff is better than what they had. They have better targets. The offense should be better."

Pair him with Jahri Evans and you've got maybe the best O-line coaching room in football, teaching maybe the youngest O-line in football. That's not nothing.

The Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers is back. It took until May 16 — a visit to Pittsburgh where he didn't even stop at the facility, weeks of silence, an unrestricted free agent tender applied in April as insurance — but he signed a one-year deal worth up to $25 million, with a base between $22-23 million and incentives on top. He was on the practice field for the start of OTAs on May 18, a stark contrast to last year, when he didn't commit until June minicamp.

Now the honest part.

Rodgers threw for 3,322 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions across 16 games in 2025. On paper: slightly above average. Under the hood, per Sharp Football's analysis, it was ugly. He ranked 24th of 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play and 32nd in success rate. He had the quickest average time to throw in the league. He was 33rd in air yards per attempt (6.0) and 27th in yards per attempt (6.7). Nearly 32% of his passes went at or behind the line of scrimmage, and 76.3% were behind the line or short. In the playoff loss to Houston, the Steelers produced 175 total yards. Rodgers threw for 146 with no touchdowns and a pick.

That's the tension of the 2026 Steelers in one player. He's a four-time MVP, he's a Hall of Famer, he won a Super Bowl with the man now calling his plays — and the tape says he can't throw downfield anymore.

Here's the counterargument, and it's not nothing either: Rodgers played 2025 with DK Metcalf being bracketed on every snap and a tight-end-heavy offense that had no vertical answer. The scheme was rudderless. He had no reliable second option. McCarthy's West Coast system with actual receivers around him is a different proposition than what Arthur Smith was running.

Rodgers, for his part, has been unusually low-key about it. "I don't need it for my ego," he said when he signed. "A lot of decisions that I've made over my career and life from strictly the ego, even if they turn out well, are always unfulfilling."

He also seems genuinely happy to be going back to Latrobe: "That's no BS… I just love the opportunity for camaraderie and team chemistry. Mike T used to talk a lot about capturing what cannot be quantified. That's what Latrobe gives the opportunity."

The Roster Overhaul

Omar Khan had an aggressive, cheap offseason. The moves, in rough order of importance:

IN:

• WR Michael Pittman Jr. — traded a 2026 sixth (No. 214) to Indianapolis for Pittman and a seventh (No. 230). Signed a three-year, $59M extension that dropped his 2026 cap hit to $8.87 million. Six-year Colt: 485 catches, 5,254 yards, 25 TDs. Two 1,000-yard seasons. This is the steal of the offseason for Pittsburgh.

• CB Jamel Dean — three years, $36.75M. The second-largest free agent contract in franchise history, behind only Patrick Queen's. Three picks in 14 starts for Tampa in 2025, plus a 55-yard pick-six. Structured so Khan can escape after one year.

• RB Rico Dowdle — two years, $12.25M. Back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons (1,076 in Carolina, 1,079 in Dallas). Career 4.5 YPC. Grinder, not a home-run hitter.

• S Jaquan Brisker — Penn State product, homecoming, physical box safety who's averaged 100+ tackles in his healthy seasons and has 7 career sacks as a blitzer.

• DT Sebastian Joseph-Day — two years, $11M. Run-stuffer. Unsexy and necessary.

• CB Asante Samuel Jr. — re-signed, one year, $4M. Just 26, a year removed from spinal fusion surgery.

• S Darnell Savage — one year, $1.4M depth.

• RB Travis Homer — special teams.

• G Brock Hoffman, P Cameron Johnston — depth/re-signs.

OUT:

• G Isaac Seumalo (Arizona, 3yr/$31.5M) — this one hurts more than people admit

• RB Kenneth Gainwell (Tampa Bay, 2yr/$14M) — 1,023 scrimmage yards last year

• WR Calvin Austin III (Giants)

• S Kyle Dugger (Cincinnati)

• TE Jonnu Smith, TE/FB Connor Heyward

• ST captain Miles Killebrew

• CB James Pierre (Minnesota)

• WR Adam Thielen (retired)

THE EXTENSION: Nick Herbig signed a four-year, $100 million deal with $42 million guaranteed. That's the move that reshapes the future of this defense — and immediately made T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith trade candidates in every league office in America.

The Draft

Twelve picks in, ten players out, three trades. Grades ranged from PFF's C+ to some genuinely angry takes locally.

The night-one story is that the Steelers wanted USC's Makai Lemon, word leaked, and the Eagles jumped them to take him. Pittsburgh pivoted to Iheanachor — a raw, high-upside right tackle who only picked up football in college, with 2,000+ college snaps and prototype size. McCarthy: "Our offensive line coaches are bouncing off the wall." The fan base was less enthused.

Bernard at 47 (they traded up from 53, giving Indy 135 and 237, getting back 249) is the pick most analysts liked. High-floor, high-IQ power slot who can move the chains and line up in the backfield. The Jarvis Landry comparison keeps coming up. Not a WR1 ceiling; a very useful WR2/3.

Allar at 76 is the polarizing one. Fifth-round grades from some evaluators. A once-projected first-rounder whose senior year at Penn State collapsed — losses to two unranked teams, then a season-ending ankle injury. He's 6-5, 235, and Tom Arth says he "throws it as well as any quarterback in this draft class. He has an effortless arm." He also opened his college career with 311 pass attempts without an interception — an FBS record.

Ray Fittipaldo framed the stakes bluntly: "You can no longer blame Penn State; now the development is on Drew." McCarthy is stripping his mechanics down to the studs. This is the McCarthy Quarterback Whisperer thesis, on trial, in public.

Dunker at 96 was widely called a steal (PFF ranked him 57). Nasty, run-and-hit guard, Iowa-coached, moving from tackle. Everette is a traits corner from Georgia with a 90.1 PFF run-defense grade. And Heidenreich, the Navy kid at 230, posted the highest PFF grade in the entire class (92.9) — Greg Cosell is already talking about big roles for him and Bernard.

Part II: What to Watch in Latrobe

1. The Right Tackle Riddle

This is the most important battle in camp, and it isn't close.

Broderick Jones — 2023 first-rounder, 38 career starts — had spinal fusion surgery after a neck injury in 2025. He is not cleared for contact. Brian Batko called him "a little bit of a forgotten man." CBS's Mike Renner flatly said he's "unlikely to play this year." Even before the injury, Jones was one of the worst tackles in football last season, and Dylan Cook outplayed him in relief.

So: Troy Fautanu is moving to left tackle, where he's never played a professional snap. He started every game at right tackle in 2025 and is a legitimate future Pro Bowler. Mason McCormick appears to be moving with him to left guard as a package deal.

That leaves right tackle to Dylan Cook (practice-squad survivor, four starts, ran with the ones all spring) versus Max Iheanachor (first-round rookie, exclusively a right tackle in college, admittedly raw).

The rest of the projected line: Zach Frazier at center, already one of the best in the NFL. Spencer Anderson, Brock Hoffman, and Gennings Dunker scrapping at left guard — and reports out of OTAs suggest the staff may want to bring Dunker along slowly rather than start him.

Renner's warning is the bear case: "You have Troy Fautanu, who is flipping from right tackle to left tackle 'cause Broderick Jones had a spinal fusion. You have rookie contract guys at left guard and center… there's a lot of moving parts here, and they could even go down a tier this year."

Campen's stated philosophy is simply "the best five play," regardless of pedigree or original position. Nobody is locked in. Watch the first padded practice on August 3 — that's when this actually starts to reveal itself. And note that CBS's Bryan DeArdo has floated signing veteran Cam Robinson (114 career starts, projected 1yr/$13.1M) as insurance. If camp goes badly, that becomes a real conversation.

Pittsburgh has spent first-rounders on Jones, Fautanu, and Iheanachor in a four-year span. They also have Frazier (2nd), McCormick (4th), and Dunker (3rd). This line will either be the best in the AFC North or a genuine problem. There's not much middle ground.

2. QB Thunderdome (For 2027)

Rodgers is the starter. That's settled. Everything behind him is a fight about the future.

• Mason Rudolph, 30, is 8-5-1 as a Steelers starter and the safe hand. Steelers Depot puts his roster odds at 33%. Ian Rapoport reported Pittsburgh could be open to dealing him.

• Will Howard, 2025 sixth-rounder, has taken zero NFL snaps — regular season or preseason. A hand injury wiped out his rookie camp. He got QB2 reps all spring, but Mark Kaboly doesn't expect him to make the 53. There's growing talk of trying to sneak him onto the practice squad.

• Drew Allar is safe. He was drafted in the third round to be developed and will be developed.

The Depot framing is exactly right: "Aaron Rodgers is for 2026, but everybody else is for 2027 and beyond." What Pittsburgh needs to learn in Latrobe is whether Howard or Allar could plausibly be the answer, because Rodgers is 43 in December and this is almost certainly it.

One injury to Rodgers and this season evaporates. NFL.com's Nick Shook: "If crisis strikes at QB, visions of a playoff victory will evaporate." That's the reality of a roster held together, in his phrase, by chicken wire.

3. Can Patrick Graham Fix This Defense?

Pittsburgh has paid for elite defense and has not received it. The 2025 unit finished 26th in total defense under Teryl Austin. That's the number driving everything.

Graham's résumé is honest, not thrilling. Miami: 30th in 2019. Giants: peaked at 12th in 2020. Raiders: 15th, 15th, then 14th in 2025 (but 25th in scoring). He has never had talent like this.

Watt says he expects to move around in the new scheme. Heyward is putting his trust in the change while trying to preserve the institutional identity: "It's not like there can only be one good coach in the league, and I've always admired Coach McCarthy from afar and just want to learn."

Watch specifically for:

• How Graham deploys three edge rushers. Watt, Highsmith, and Herbig on the field simultaneously is the puzzle. Nobody else in the league carries three edges above $11M except Las Vegas, and theirs wasn't by design.

• Keeanu Benton's role change. Domata Peko has confirmed Benton will play more as a gap-technique DT rather than exclusively at nose. Benton posted career highs in sacks, tackles, TFLs, and QB hits in 2025 — and he's in a contract year.

• Whether Jalen Ramsey lives in the slot. With Dean and Porter on the boundary, Ramsey to nickel is the obvious answer, and Steelers Depot notes the slot corner spot hasn't had a consistent starter since Cam Sutton left before 2023.

• Safety depth, which is thin behind Brisker and DeShon Elliott (still recovering from a Week 8 knee injury last year). Sebastian Castro and Robert Spears-Jennings are both battling Darnell Savage.

4. The Watt / Highsmith / Herbig Money Problem

After the Herbig extension, ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported that league executives believe Watt could actually be the one moved: "Watt, for all his greatness, turns 32 in October and has guaranteed salaries of $32 million in both 2026 and '27. Watt is a legacy player, something Pittsburgh values more than most. But some teams could see Pittsburgh at least considering moving on from him."

Rapoport has since poured cold water on it. The plan is to keep all three through 2026. Mark Kaboly's read is that Herbig's lower 2026 cap hit lets the Steelers punt the problem to next offseason.

The 2026 reality: Watt ($42M cap hit, three years/$123M extension signed last July, guarantees through 2027, seven sacks in 14 games last season), Highsmith (29 in August, $14.5M base, no remaining guarantees, 9.5 sacks and 15 TFLs in 2025 — a real injury risk exposure that sometimes prompts holdouts), and Herbig (24, freshly extended, career-high 7.5 sacks and three forced fumbles).

The 2027 reality: somebody gets moved. Probably Highsmith, whose contract is manageable. Possibly Watt, for a haul, though the Steelers have long treated him as a "one helmet" guy.

For this season it's the best edge trio in football, on one team, at the same time. Enjoy it.

5. Cam Heyward's Snap Count

He's 37. He was First-Team All-Pro in 2024 and Second-Team in 2025 (78 tackles, 9 TFLs, 9 QB hits, 3.5 sacks). He has already dropped from high-80s snap percentages in 2019-21 to ~71% the last two years, and Kaboly expects another 5-10% cut, deliberately, to keep him fresh into December and January.

That's only possible if Derrick Harmon takes the second-year leap. The 2025 first-rounder (21st overall) started eight of 12 games as a rookie — 27 tackles, 3 sacks, 5 QB hits — while fighting through two MCL sprains. Sam Monson: "Derrick Harmon could be in line for a jump." Doug Whaley thinks Harmon's rise directly extends Heyward's shelf life.

Peko is molding Harmon, Benton, and Yahya Black in the image of Heyward and Joseph-Day. If all three hit, Heyward gets to be a weapon deployed rather than a workhorse worn down. If they don't, the Steelers ask a 37-year-old to carry a defensive line for seventeen games.

Part III: Sleepers, Risers, and Guys Who Could Change This Season

Eli Heidenreich (RB/WR, R7, Navy). The 92.9 PFF grade is the highest in the entire draft class. Cosell sees a real role. He's competing with Kaleb Johnson and Travis Homer for a spot, and everyone's picking him as a sleeper — which is usually the kiss of death, except the tape actually backs it up. Great story, real talent, the return game is wide open with Austin and Gainwell both gone.

Germie Bernard (WR, R2). Not a sleeper in the technical sense, but the fan-vote co-favorite of the rookie class. Rare professionalism in practice, rarely makes mistakes, poised to win the starting slot job outright. Nearly half his Alabama snaps came from the slot; he can also work outside and take jet sweeps. In a McCarthy West Coast offense that will throw, he could see 60+ targets as a rookie.

Derrick Harmon (DT, 2nd year). The single most important individual leap on the roster. Everything about Heyward's season and Graham's front depends on him.

Keeanu Benton (DT, contract year). Career highs across the board in 2025, a new gap-technique role, and money on the line. Classic breakout setup.

Yahya Black (DL, 2nd year). Struggled as a rookie. Big defensive linemen typically get better. Real chance he's DL4 and the primary backup at all three spots.

Gennings Dunker (G, R3). PFF called him one of the third round's biggest steals. "Devastating power." He may not start Week 1, but he'll be starting by December.

Dylan Cook (OT). The undrafted-and-practice-squad-to-starter arc is already halfway complete. If he holds off a first-round pick at right tackle, that's a story.

Sebastian Castro (S). Thin safety room, strong camp, and he's in the rotation.

Kaden Wetjen (WR/KR, R4). Landed as the top returner in the country. With Austin and Gainwell gone, the return job is his to lose.

Kaleb Johnson (RB, 2nd year). The bounce-back candidate. 2.5 YPC on 28 carries as a rookie plus a special teams blunder that got him benched from kickoffs. Drew praise this spring. He needs to prove he's a rugged power back, or Homer/Heidenreich take his spot.

Roman Wilson (WR, 3rd year). Last chance. Two lost years to injury and healthy scratches. New staff, blank slate, and a lack of depth behind him. Bob Labriola says he'll "be given a chance to compete."

Part IV: The Season Ahead

The Schedule

Winning the division earned Pittsburgh a first-place schedule for the first time since 2021.

Preseason: Aug 13 vs. Green Bay (McCarthy vs. his old team, at Acrisure), Aug 21 vs. NY Jets, Aug 27 at Buffalo.

The first half is navigable. Weeks 1-8 include Atlanta, New England, Cincinnati, Cleveland twice, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans. The back half is where it gets grim: a Thursday-nightmare-adjacent stretch, Philadelphia, Denver on a short week, Houston, a Monday nighter in Jacksonville, and then Baltimore twice bracketing Carolina and Tennessee.

The Paris game (Week 7) into a home game against Cleveland (Week 8) is the exact scenario the Steelers benefited from last year when they caught a jet-lagged Browns team off a London trip. This year the shoe is on the other foot — though the bye follows immediately.

What the Market Thinks

Nobody outside of Pittsburgh believes.

• Win total: 8.5 (BetMGM), with the Under at -135

• Playoffs: +180 yes / -220 no

• AFC North: +500 to +550 — behind Baltimore and Cincinnati

• AFC: +3000

• Sharp Football, Kalshi-based models, and BetMGM's own analyst all project roughly 7.5-8 wins

• CBS's R.J. White is staying away entirely

• Prediction models have them 3rd in the division at 7.5 wins, behind Cincinnati (9.1) and Baltimore (8.3)

The counterargument, and it's a strong one: Pittsburgh has beaten its win total six straight seasons. They've won at least nine games in 11 of the last 12 years. They haven't had a losing season since 2003.

The bear case is regression math. Over the last three years, the Steelers won 22 of 30 games decided by one possession or less. In 2025 they were 4th in total turnovers forced (27), 4th in turnover margin (+12), and 2nd in turnover net EPA. They were 2nd in net fumble recoveries over expectation (+5.1). That's not a repeatable formula. That's variance wearing a Terrible Towel.

The bull case: the offensive line was actually excellent in the areas that matter (1st in pressure rate allowed, 7th in first downs per rush), they finally have a real WR2, the defense is more talented than 26th, and they've upgraded the coaching staff at nearly every position.

Part V: The Prediction

Here's how I see it.

The offense will be better and it still won't be good. Pittman is a genuine upgrade. Bernard gives McCarthy a real slot option. Metcalf, freed from constant double-teams, is a plausible 1,200-yard, 8-10 touchdown season — Kaboly thinks it's "very attainable." Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington get more room with Jonnu Smith gone. Warren and Dowdle are a genuinely good, complementary duo.

But Rodgers cannot throw the ball down the field. He was 33rd in air yards per attempt. McCarthy's system will get the ball out fast and on schedule, which suits Rodgers fine — right up until it's third-and-9 in December and someone needs to make a play.

The defense will be better and it needs to be great. Graham has more talent than he's ever had. The corner room — Porter, Dean, Ramsey in the slot, Samuel, Echols, Everette — is legitimately good for the first time in years. The edge trio is the best in football. Heyward, Harmon, and Benton give them a real interior. But Graham's own history says "league average," and Pittsburgh needs top-eight.

The offensive line is the season. If Fautanu handles left tackle and either Cook or Iheanachor holds down the right side, Rodgers stays clean, the run game works, and this team wins 10 games. If it fractures — and there are five moving pieces, one rookie, and a first-time-at-the-position left tackle — Rodgers gets hit, the offense stalls, and the 22-year non-losing streak dies in December.

My number: 9-8. They start hot — I like them to be 5-3 or 6-2 into the bye — and then the back half of that schedule takes its toll. Denver on a short week, Philadelphia, Houston, and two Baltimore games in the last four weeks is a brutal way to close.

They'll finish second in the AFC North behind Cincinnati, and they'll be in the Wild Card hunt into Week 18 at M&T Bank Stadium, which is exactly the kind of Steelers ending you'd expect. They sneak in as the 7 seed. Then they play a real contender on the road and the vertical passing game doesn't exist and it's 24-13 by the fourth quarter and everybody spends February talking about a quarterback.

The playoff-win drought — nine years and counting, seven straight postseason losses — survives one more season.

But here's what I actually believe, and it's the reason this year matters more than the win-loss record:

Drew Allar's development under Mike McCarthy is the most important thing happening in Pittsburgh in 2026. Not the season. Not the Wild Card game. If McCarthy — the man who developed Favre, Rodgers, and Prescott — takes a 6-5, 235-pound kid with an effortless arm and fixes his footwork and his eyes and his process, then 2027 is when this thing actually starts.

Rodgers is the bridge. Watt and Heyward are the last flag-bearers of the Tomlin era. Herbig, Harmon, Frazier, Fautanu, Benton, Porter, Bernard, Iheanachor, Dunker, Allar — that's the football team.

Everything from July 28 forward is about finding out which of them are real.

Camp opens Tuesday, July 28. First open practice July 29 at 11 a.m. Pads on August 3. Night practice — moved from Friday to Saturday this year — August 8 at 6 p.m. at Latrobe Memorial Stadium. Final open practice August 17. Free admission with a mobile ticket.

See yinz in Latrobe.